False Cause (Post Hoc): A Logical Fallacy

False Cause (Post Hoc): Term

False Cause, also known as Post Hoc (Latin for “after this, therefore because of this”), is a logical fallacy in which a causal relationship is assumed between two events simply because they are temporally related. This fallacy asserts that if event A precedes event B, then A must have caused B.

However, this simplistic reasoning neglects other potential factors and lacks empirical evidence to establish a genuine cause-and-effect relationship. While temporal proximity might suggest a connection, it is crucial to critically evaluate additional evidence and consider alternative explanations before attributing causation based solely on chronological order. Recognizing and avoiding the false cause fallacy is essential for fostering sound reasoning and logical thinking.

False Cause (Post Hoc): Literal and Conceptual Meanings

Literal Meaning:

• Temporal Relationship: False Cause, or Post Hoc, refers to the misconception that if event A precedes event B chronologically, then A must be the cause of B.
• Causal Assumption: The fallacy involves making unwarranted assumptions about cause and effect based solely on the order of events.

Conceptual Meaning:

• Logical Fallacy: False Cause is recognized as a logical fallacy, indicating flawed reasoning that ignores other potential explanations or contributing factors.
• Need for Empirical Evidence: It emphasizes the importance of empirical evidence and critical evaluation in establishing genuine cause-and-effect relationships.
• Cautious Reasoning: Users are advised to avoid drawing causal conclusions based solely on temporal proximity and encouraged to consider alternative explanations for events.

Understanding both the literal and conceptual meanings of False Cause is essential for cultivating logical thinking and avoiding erroneous causal connections.

False Cause (Post Hoc): Definition as a Logical Fallacy

False Cause, or Post Hoc, is a logical fallacy where a causal connection is erroneously inferred from the mere temporal sequence of events. It occurs when one assumes that if event A precedes event B, then A must have caused B without considering other factors. This fallacious reasoning overlooks the need for empirical evidence and critical analysis, attributing causation based solely on chronological order.

False Cause (Post Hoc): Types and Examples

Type of False Cause	Example
Coincidental Correlation	Believing that carrying an umbrella causes rain because it often rains when you have one.
Cum Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc	Assuming that because a rooster crows before sunrise, the crowing causes the sun to rise.
Regression Fallacy	Thinking that wearing a specific jersey led a sports team to win, neglecting the team’s overall performance fluctuations.

This table provides a concise overview of the types of False Cause (Post Hoc) and illustrates each type with a clear example.

False Cause (Post Hoc): Examples in Everyday Life

1. Superstitions:
   • Example: Believing that a lucky charm brought good luck because you won a game after carrying it.
   • Post Hoc Description: Inferring a cause-and-effect relationship between the charm and the victory based on the temporal sequence of carrying it and winning.
2. Flu and Cold Remedies:
   • Example: Thinking a specific remedy cured your cold because you recovered after taking it.
   • Post Hoc Description: Assuming a causal link between the remedy and recovery due to their temporal correlation, without considering other factors.
3. Traffic Light Magic:
   • Example: Pressing the pedestrian button repeatedly, thinking it causes the traffic light to change faster.
   • Post Hoc Description: Believing that the repeated button presses cause the quicker light change due to their temporal association, despite a lack of evidence or logical connection.
4. Rainy Car Wash:
   • Example: Washing your car and then believing it caused rain because it often rains shortly after.
   • Post Hoc Description: Attributing the rain to the car wash based solely on the temporal order of events, without considering the lack of a causal relationship.
5. Sports Rituals:
   • Example: Assuming a specific routine directly influences a team’s success because they won when you followed it.
   • Post Hoc Description: Associating the team’s victory with the ritual based on their temporal alignment, without considering other factors influencing the game.

In each example, the post hoc fallacy is evident as individuals mistakenly attribute causation to events based solely on their temporal sequence, without considering other potential explanations or empirical evidence.

False Cause (Post Hoc) in Literature: Suggested Readings

1. Booth, Wayne C. The Craft of Research. University of Chicago Press, 2008.
2. Booth, Wayne C. The Rhetoric of Fiction. University of Chicago Press, 1983.
3. Graff, Gerald. Beyond the Culture Wars: How Teaching the Conflicts Can Revitalize American Education. W.W. Norton & Company, 1992.
4. Graff, Gerald, and Cathy Birkenstein. They Say/I Say: The Moves That Matter in Academic Writing. W.W. Norton & Company, 2014.
5. Lamott, Anne. Bird by Bird: Some Instructions on Writing and Life. Anchor, 1995.
6. Lunsford, Andrea A., and John J. Ruszkiewicz. Everything’s an Argument. Bedford/St. Martin’s, 2019.
7. Ramage, John D., John C. Bean, and June Johnson. Writing Arguments: A Rhetoric with Readings. Pearson, 2017.
8. Strunk, William, and E.B. White. The Elements of Style. Pearson, 2017.
9. Toulmin, Stephen. The Uses of Argument. Cambridge University Press, 2003.
10. Williams, Joseph M., and Joseph Bizup. Style: Lessons in Clarity and Grace. Pearson, 2017.