Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Etymology, Literal and Conceptual Meanings
Etymology
The term “Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy” originates from a hypothetical scenario involving a marksman who fires at the side of a barn, subsequently painting a target around the cluster of bullet holes. The marksman then claims to be a skilled sharpshooter by selectively showcasing the group of shots that form a pattern. This fallacy is named after the idea that the marksman is creating the appearance of precision after the fact, rather than aiming accurately in the first place.
Literal and Conceptual Meanings
| Term | Literal Meaning | Conceptual Meaning |
| Texas Sharpshooter (Literal) | A skilled marksman, often associated with the American West or Texas. | The fallacy involves creating the appearance of accuracy by selectively highlighting patterns after the fact. |
| Texas Sharpshooter (Conceptual) | Selective emphasis on data that fits a predetermined pattern. | Choosing specific data points that align with a desired narrative, ignoring the broader context or randomness. |
| Cluster of Bullet Holes (Literal) | A group of shots on the side of a barn. | Actual data or events that are not intentionally related but appear significant due to selective emphasis. |
| Cluster of Bullet Holes (Conceptual) | Data points or events grouped together for emphasis. | Selectively focusing on specific instances that seem to form a pattern, neglecting the overall context. |
This table illustrates the literal and conceptual meanings associated with the term “Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy,” highlighting both the origins of the metaphor and its application in the broader context of logical fallacies and biased reasoning.
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Definition as a Logical Fallacy
The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a logical fallacy where a person focuses on a cluster of data points that appear to form a pattern, drawing a false conclusion of significance. This fallacy occurs when the individual intentionally or unintentionally ignores the broader context or random distribution of the data and instead emphasizes specific points that align with a desired narrative. It is akin to a marksman painting a target around a cluster of bullet holes on a barn, creating the illusion of precision after the fact.
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Types and Examples
- Data Mining Fallacy:
- Description: Selectively focusing on specific data points without a prior hypothesis, then interpreting patterns as meaningful.
- Example: A stock trader analyzes historical stock prices, finding a brief period where a stock sharply increased. Ignoring the overall market trends, they conclude that a particular strategy consistently yields high returns.
- Cherry-Picking Fallacy:
- Description: Handpicking specific instances that support an argument while ignoring contradictory evidence.
- Example: An advocate for a particular diet highlights individual success stories but ignores cases where the diet led to adverse effects, creating a skewed perception of its effectiveness.
- Historian’s Fallacy:
- Description: Judging past events based on present knowledge, leading to anachronistic interpretations.
- Example: Interpreting ancient texts with contemporary moral standards, overlooking the historical context and potential differences in societal norms.
- Texas Marksman Fallacy:
- Description: Drawing a target around observed patterns after the fact, creating the illusion of intentional accuracy.
- Example: A psychic predicts a specific event, and after a broad occurrence, claims accuracy by retroactively fitting the prediction to the observed outcome.
- Selective Perception Fallacy:
- Description: Noticing patterns that confirm pre-existing beliefs while dismissing conflicting information.
- Example: A conspiracy theorist selectively focuses on news articles supporting their theory and dismisses credible sources debunking it, reinforcing their conspiracy narrative.
- File Drawer Fallacy:
- Description: Overlooking or omitting data that does not support a particular conclusion, leading to biased results.
- Example: A pharmaceutical company publishes only positive results from drug trials and disregards studies showing adverse effects, creating an incomplete and misleading picture.
In each of these examples, the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy involves selectively highlighting data points or patterns while neglecting a comprehensive and unbiased analysis of the entire dataset or context.
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Examples in Everyday Life
- Health and Nutrition Claims:
- Example: Selectively highlighting anecdotal evidence of individuals who experienced weight loss with a specific diet while ignoring cases where the diet was ineffective or had adverse effects.
- Superstitions:
- Example: Noticing instances where a particular ritual or charm seemed to bring good luck while disregarding countless instances where it had no impact.
- Sports Predictions:
- Example: Making numerous predictions about sports outcomes and afterward highlighting the ones that turned out correct while ignoring incorrect predictions.
- Job Search Success Stories:
- Example: Sharing success stories of people who secured their dream job after following specific advice without considering the many others who followed the same advice but did not succeed.
- Political Campaigning:
- Example: Politicians emphasizing specific achievements or positive statistics during their tenure while neglecting negative aspects or areas where they fell short.
- Educational Strategies:
- Example: Educational consultants promoting a particular teaching method by showcasing instances where students excelled using that approach, while disregarding cases where it was less effective.
- Product Testimonials:
- Example: Marketing campaigns showcasing positive testimonials about a product’s effectiveness while ignoring negative reviews or experiences.
- Weather Predictions:
- Example: Meteorologists highlighting instances where their predictions were accurate and downplaying cases where forecasts were incorrect or inconsistent.
- Investment Success Stories:
- Example: Financial advisors emphasizing instances where their recommended investments performed well while ignoring instances of poor performance or losses.
- Relationship Advice:
- Example: Relationship experts presenting success stories of couples who followed their advice and had improved relationships, while overlooking cases where the advice did not lead to positive outcomes.
In each of these examples, the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy occurs when individuals or entities selectively emphasize favorable outcomes or patterns while disregarding less favorable or contradictory information.
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy in Literature: Suggested Readings
- Andrea A. Lunsford, John J. Ruszkiewicz, and Keith Walters, Everything’s an Argument with Readings, Bedford/St. Martin’s, 2019.
- Gerald Graff and Cathy Birkenstein, They Say/I Say: The Moves That Matter in Academic Writing, W. W. Norton & Company, 2018.
- John D. Ramage, John C. Bean, and June Johnson, Writing Arguments: A Rhetoric with Readings, Pearson, 2018.
- Wayne C. Booth, Gregory G. Colomb, and Joseph M. Williams, The Craft of Research, University of Chicago Press, 2008.
- Stephen Toulmin, The Uses of Argument, Cambridge University Press, 2003.